新たな成長源の開拓

貿易摩擦の激化と政策の不確実性により、2026年の世界経済成長率は3.1%と見込まれています。これは予測困難な事業環境を反映したものです。従来成長の原動力となってきた貿易は、2025年にはわずか0.9%の成長にとどまると見込まれており、既存のルールは揺らぎ、新たなルールはまだ確立されていません。表面的なインフレ率は徐々に抑制されつつあるものの、コアインフレ率は依然として高止まりし、GDP比の債務残高は過去最高の95%に達しています。こうした状況下では、政策立案者の財政、金融面での選択肢が限られます。今後の見通しは、各経済圏が短期的なショックに対処するだけでなく、イノベーションを活用した長期的な生産性を高める能力にますます依存していくでしょう。さらに、経済政策は労働力や一般市民のニーズにも配慮し、成長の恩恵がより多くの人々に届くよう、設計されなければなりません。

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